Statistical Arbitrage strategy applied to Video Poker


Jacks or Better is a preferred video slot machines poker game accessible at numerous internet gambling establishments. When collecting gambling establishment matched deposit bonuses, it counts towards betting requirements for most internet based gambling dens, has a great pay out, along with a large jackpot.

This article will show readers tips on how to calculate and maximise their anticipated return when using Jacks or Better to clear Gambling house bonuses. In effect, this is really a statistical arbitrage strategy comparable to that used by Casinos to maintain a casino advantage over players.

Readers who do not already know tips on how to wager on Jacks or Better are advised to read this tutorial covering the basics.

Basic Optimal System

CSBS favours a straightforward Jacks or Better method as it enables a faster rate of play with minimal expected loss. Five coins needs to be played per hand as this maximises the payout from a Royal Flush.

This straightforward strategy has a 99.46 percent pay out. To use the it, discover all the ways to bet on a feasible hand from the list below, and select the one that is highest. A great card is one that’s a Jack or better (i.e. Jack, Queen, King or Ace).

To execute the strategy, players basically wager on the initial hand which is highest in this list:

  1. Full house or better
  2. 4 to a royal flush
  3. Straight, three of a kind, or flush
  4. four to a straight flush
  5. 2 pair
  6. High pair (for example pair of Jacks, Queens, Kings or Aces)

  7. 3 to a royal flush
  8. four to a flush
  9. Low pair (for example pair of Tens or lower)

  10. 4 to an outside straight
  11. 2 suited great cards
  12. 3 to a straight flush
  13. 2 unsuited good cards (if additional than 2 pick then pick lowest two)
  14. Suited Ten/Jack, Ten/Queen, or 10/K
  15. One great card
  16. Discard everything

Expected Returns – Intercasino US Illustration

Just before claiming any gambling den deposit bonuses, it’s critical to understand the terms and conditions, and any betting requirements. As an example, we shall take into account claiming the Intercasino US 90 dollars monthly deposit bonus, and demonstrate how to calculate the expected return.

At time of writing, Intercasino US supply a $90 monthly deposit bonus. This means that gamers depositing 90 dollars will receive a 90 dollars bonus into their account. (Intercasino US credits this immediately upon deposit, except other gambling houses could act differently).

The terms and conditions state that players must bet an aggregate total of twenty-five times the bonus in the gambling house prior to they can withdraw the bonus cash. For instance, a player who deposits ninety dollars and receives a $90 bonus must then wager an aggregate value of $2,250 just before they can cash out.

A player using the Basic Strategy would expect a pay out of 99.46 % which is similar to a loss of 0.0054 per cent. As a result, if they wager the full 2,250 dollars wager necessity they would expect a loss of 2,250 dollars multiplied by 0.0054 equals 12 dollars and 15 cents.

Since the gambler received a 90 dollars deposit bonus, their expected profit is therefore – ninety dollars minus $12.15 equals 77 dollars and 85 cents.

Troubles to take into account

You will discover a number of additional considerations that players may well want to contemplate prior to taking benefit of these bonuses. A few are listed here:

  • Neteller users must pay $1.00 to withdraw. This is an extra price reducing the expected return to $76.85.
  • The expected return is only an estimate. Players aren’t certain to win every month, though if they hit a Royal Flush then they could produce a great deal more than $77.85.
  • Some gambling establishments will allow players to withdraw their deposits before they’ve even began working through the wager requirements. CSBS doesn’t recommend this as it can lead to players being banned for abusing the promotions.